Trade growth expected to remain positive in Japan in Q4 2018

Written by DHL

Exports of land vehicles and machinery to drive country's air trade growth
Technology and machinery imports are contributing to the country's growth expectations

TOKYO, JAPAN - Media OutReach ^[1] - 8 October 2018 - Air exports of land vehicles and parts continue to be the main contributor to sustained trade growth in Japan, according to data from the DHL Global Trade Barometer ^[2] released by DHL, the world's leading logistics company.

The DHL Global Trade Barometer ^[3], an early indicator of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligence and Big Data, shows that Japan's trade growth is expected to increase at a moderate rate with 64 points in Q4, signaling ongoing positivity for businesses in the country.

Air trade is expected to remain high at 79 points, with exports of machinery parts appearing well-positioned for rapid growth, complementing the country's sustained strength in automotive exports. On air imports, High Technology and Machinery Parts are expected to contribute most to growth expectations. While ocean trade is forecasted to grow at a very slow pace, an expected increase in ocean exports for Land Vehicles & Parts, Industrial Raw Materials and Basic Raw Materials is expected to bring the overall ocean trade index to 55 points.

"Japan's moderate but consistent economic growth shows little sign of wavering, especially in its historic areas of excellence like automotive manufacturing," said Charles Kaufmann, President/Representative Director -- Japan K.K, and CEO, North Asia South Pacific, DHL Global Forwarding. "The country's economic maturity puts it in a solid position to meet the evolving needs of increasingly affluent Asian consumers in the sub-region, while also catering to global demand for value-added products like high technology, machinery and parts -- areas where Japan excels with its reputation for precision, quality and innovation."

The Barometer's results also suggest that despite intensifying global trade disputes, mainly between China and the US, world trade is expected to grow over the next three months albeit at a slower pace. The growth outlook looks positive for all Asia Pacific countries with India leading the ranks, along with optimistic outlooks for South Korea, China, and Japan. This is testament to the Asian economy's growth, especially in the areas of technology and manufacturing. In the Global Trade Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, while values below 50 indicate contraction.

Developed jointly by DHL and Accenture, the DHL Global Trade Barometer ^[4] provides a quarterly outlook on future trade, taking into consideration the import and export data of seven large economies: China, South Korea, Germany, India, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Together, these countries account for 75 percent of world trade, making their aggregated data an effective bellwether for near-term predictions on global trade. The DHL Global Trade Barometer, which assesses commodities that serve as the basis for further industrial production, predicts that global trade will continue to grow in the next three months, despite slight losses in momentum.

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