A shrinking fraction of the world's major crops goes to feed the hungry, with more used for nonfood purposes
- Written by Deepak Ray, Senior Scientist, University of Minnesota
These two maps show how the use of 10 major food crops changed from the 1960s to the 2010s. In areas that change from blue and green to red and purple, crops increasingly are used for food processing, export and industrial uses (labeled ‘other’). One hectare equals about 2.5 acres.
Ray et al., 2022, CC BY-ND[6][7]
Serving the affluent, not the poor
These profound changes show how and where agriculture and agribusiness are responding to the growth of the global middle class. As incomes rise, people demand more animal products and convenient processed foods. They also use more industrial products that contain plant-based ingredients, such as biofuels[8], bioplastics[9] and pharmaceuticals[10].
Many crops grown for export, processing and industrial uses are specially bred varieties of the 10 major crops that we analyzed. For example, only about 1% of corn grown is the U.S. is sweet corn[11], the type that people eat fresh, frozen or canned. The rest is mostly field corn, which is used to make biofuels, animal feed and food additives.
Crops grown for these uses produce more calories per unit of land than those harvested for direct food use, and that gap is widening. In our study we calculated that industrial-use crops already yield twice as many calories as those harvested for direct food consumption, and their yield is increasing 2.5 times faster.
The amount of protein per unit of land from processing crops is twice that of food crops, and is increasing at 1.8 times the rate of food crops. Crops harvested for direct food consumption have had the lowest yields across all metrics of measurement and lowest rates of improvement.
Grow more foods that feed the hungry
What does this mean for reducing hunger? We estimate that by 2030, the world will be harvesting enough calories to feed its projected population – but it won’t be using most of those crops for direct food consumption.
According to our analysis, 48 countries will not produce enough calories within their borders to feed their populations. Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan Africa, but they also include Asian nations such as Afghanistan and Pakistan and Caribbean countries such as Haiti.
Scientists and agricultural experts have worked to increase the productivity of food crops[12] in countries where many people are undernourished, but the gains so far have not been enough. There may be ways to persuade wealthier nations to raise more food crops and divert that extra output to undernourished countries, but this would be a short-term solution.
My colleagues and I believe the broader goal should be raising more crops in food-insecure countries that are used directly as food, and increasing their yields. Ending poverty[13], the U.N.‘s top sustainable development goal, will also enable countries that can’t produce enough food to meet their domestic needs to import it from other suppliers. Without more focus on the needs of the world’s undernourished people, eliminating hunger will remain a distant goal.
References^ CC BY-ND (creativecommons.org)^ newly published study (doi.org)^ ending hunger by 2030 (sdgs.un.org)^ rice, corn, bread (theconversation.com)^ vegetable oils (www.ifpri.org)^ Ray et al., 2022 (doi.org)^ CC BY-ND (creativecommons.org)^ biofuels (farm-energy.extension.org)^ bioplastics (www.totalenergies-corbion.com)^ pharmaceuticals (www.centerforfoodsafety.org)^ only about 1% of corn grown is the U.S. is sweet corn (nebraskacorn.gov)^ increase the productivity of food crops (theconversation.com)^ Ending poverty (sdgs.un.org)Authors: Deepak Ray, Senior Scientist, University of Minnesota 
