The ‘drug threat’ that justified the US ouster of Maduro won’t be fixed by his arrest
- Written by Eduardo Gamarra, Professor of Politics and International Relations, Florida International University
Donald Trump has flagged Venezuelan drug trafficking[1] as a key reason for the U.S. military operation on Jan. 3, 2026, that captured President Nicolás Maduro and whisked him to New York to face federal drug charges[2].
Trump has described Maduro[3] as “the kingpin of a vast criminal network responsible for trafficking colossal amounts of deadly and illicit drugs into the United States.”
In 2025, the administration presented the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean[4] and repeated strikes on alleged drug trafficking vessels off Venezuela’s coast[5] as necessary to counter the flow of cocaine into the United States.
But as an international relations scholar[6] focused on Latin America, I know that when assessed against hard data on cocaine production and transit, the U.S. pretense for military action against Venezuela falters.
Venezuela has never been a major cocaine producer[7]. That distinction belongs overwhelmingly to Colombia, which accounts for the vast majority of coca cultivation and cocaine processing[8] in the Western Hemisphere.
That means the arrest of Maduro and subsequent U.S. attempts to control Venezuela’s government are unlikely to stem the influx of cocaine into the U.S.
Justifying intervention
While Venezuela’s geography and governance gaps make it a transit country for Colombian products[9], most U.S. cocaine originates and flows through corridors north and west of Venezuela[10]. This contradicts the claim that Caracas was the central hub of cocaine trafficking into the United States.
Moreover, the opioid overdose crisis in the U.S.[11] today is overwhelmingly driven by synthetic drugs such as fentanyl[12], which have supply chains rooted in Mexico and Asia[13], not Venezuela.
So why did Washington elevate Venezuela’s role in narcotics?
The answer, I believe, lies less in illicit markets than in power. By conflating criminal networks with government authority, an act amplified through legal designations[15] and indictments, the Trump administration could justify military intervention[16] without explicit congressional authorization.
Once Maduro was removed, the substance beneath the rhetoric became clearer. The U.S. has not turned power over to an opposition democratic coalition[17]. Instead, it facilitated the swearing-in of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim president[18], a figure deeply tied to the existing regime[19] and whose network includes people long accused by U.S. authorities of illegal activities.
The release of political prisoners[20] by the interim government and U.S. moves to reopen Venezuela’s oil sector[21] to American interests underscore that what unfolded was not purely a counternarcotics mission but a reconfiguration of governance in Caracas.
Pretext for military action
The role of the Cartel de los Soles[22] – or Cartel of the Suns – in this narrative deserves particular scrutiny. Originally a label for alleged trafficking networks within Venezuela’s security forces[23], U.S. legal indictments and terrorist designations[24] expanded that concept. That amplified the narrative that Maduro was at the head of a transnational criminal enterprise[25].
In fact, the Cartel de los Soles is not a structured cartel[26] at all. Yet the narrative of Maduro as head of a narco-terrorist empire was politically and legally potent. It provided a pretext for military action[27], creating a justification that could be sold domestically and internationally as an effort to defend U.S. citizens from an external criminal threat.
But the U.S. attack in Venezuela was not, in substance, a counternarcotics mission. It was a strategic economic and geopolitical operation framed in the language of law enforcement[28].
Two days after the Venezuela attack, the Justice Department retreated from its November 2025 claim[29] that Maduro was the head of Cartel de los Soles[30], underscoring that the link between drug enforcement and regime removal was more instrumental than evidentiary.
Rodríguez said just days after the U.S. attack[31], “Drug trafficking and human rights were the excuse; the real motive was oil.”
No meaningful reduction
While the U.S. operation in Venezuela undoubtedly disrupted the trafficking networks that operated under Maduro’s umbrella, at least temporarily, the action cannot be convincingly framed as a drug supply intervention.
The reality of drug trafficking itself underscores this point.
Cocaine production and distribution networks[33] are dynamic. When one route is disrupted, traffickers invariably find alternative pathways[34].
Routes that once used Venezuelan territory have likely rerouted rather than collapsed. This has historically characterized drug flow in Latin America in response to pressure from law enforcement[35].
Even if Venezuelan transit networks are briefly destabilized, there is no evidence that U.S. intervention will lead to a meaningful reduction in the volume of illegal drugs flowing into the United States[36]. The most significant drivers of U.S. drug problems, including Mexico-based distribution systems and the surge of synthetic opioids[37], operate largely outside Venezuela.
The U.S. operation may benefit Venezuela politically by toppling a long-standing authoritarian figure. That opens the possibility of political change[38].
But if the lens through which policymakers view these events is drug policy, they are misreading both the evidence and the incentives. The action was centered on energy and strategic realignment, with counternarcotics rhetoric serving as a justification rather than a driver of the U.S. attack.
And while trafficking networks adapt and survive, these shifts will not reduce the flow of drugs into the United States, which has long been shaped by factors far beyond Venezuela’s borders[39].
References
- ^ Venezuelan drug trafficking (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ face federal drug charges (www.cbsnews.com)
- ^ Trump has described Maduro (www.latimes.com)
- ^ U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean (www.reuters.com)
- ^ alleged drug trafficking vessels off Venezuela’s coast (www.npr.org)
- ^ an international relations scholar (pir.fiu.edu)
- ^ a major cocaine producer (www.cato.org)
- ^ coca cultivation and cocaine processing (www.unodc.org)
- ^ a transit country for Colombian products (insightcrime.org)
- ^ corridors north and west of Venezuela (www.wola.org)
- ^ opioid overdose crisis in the U.S. (www.cdc.gov)
- ^ driven by synthetic drugs such as fentanyl (doi.org)
- ^ supply chains rooted in Mexico and Asia (www.brookings.edu)
- ^ XNY/Star Max/GC Images (www.gettyimages.com)
- ^ an act amplified through legal designations (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ Trump administration could justify military intervention (www.wsj.com)
- ^ an opposition democratic coalition (www.pbs.org)
- ^ Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim president (www.nbcnews.com)
- ^ deeply tied to the existing regime (theconversation.com)
- ^ release of political prisoners (www.bbc.com)
- ^ reopen Venezuela’s oil sector (www.reuters.com)
- ^ Cartel de los Soles (insightcrime.org)
- ^ trafficking networks within Venezuela’s security forces (insightcrime.org)
- ^ terrorist designations (home.treasury.gov)
- ^ Maduro was at the head of a transnational criminal enterprise (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ Cartel de los Soles is not a structured cartel (insightcrime.org)
- ^ a pretext for military action (www.theguardian.com)
- ^ framed in the language of law enforcement (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ Justice Department retreated from its November 2025 claim (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ Maduro was the head of Cartel de los Soles (www.state.gov)
- ^ Rodríguez said just days after the U.S. attack (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ Alex Wong/Getty Images (www.gettyimages.com)
- ^ Cocaine production and distribution networks (www.unodc.org)
- ^ traffickers invariably find alternative pathways (www.brookings.edu)
- ^ response to pressure from law enforcement (news.asu.edu)
- ^ meaningful reduction in the volume of illegal drugs flowing into the United States (insightcrime.org)
- ^ Mexico-based distribution systems and the surge of synthetic opioids (www.wola.org)
- ^ possibility of political change (www.crisisgroup.org)
- ^ far beyond Venezuela’s borders (www.the-independent.com)
Authors: Eduardo Gamarra, Professor of Politics and International Relations, Florida International University
