US Army’s image of power and flag-waving rings false to Gen Z weary of gun violence − and long-term recruitment numbers show it

The U.S. Army will celebrate its 250th birthday^[1] on Saturday, June 14, 2025, with a parade in Washington, D.C., in which about 6,600 soldiers^[2] and heavy pieces of military equipment will roll through the streets. The parade aims to display the Army’s history and power.

“It’s going to be incredible,” President Donald Trump recently said^[3]. Trump’s 79th birthday also occurs on June 14.

Despite the festivities, however, the parade will occur amid bleak times for the U.S. military, as it experiences a multiyear decline in recruitment numbers^[4]. In the face of a pandemic and a strong civilian job market, the Army, Air Force and Navy all missed their recruitment goals^[5] in 2022 and 2023. In 2022, the Army missed its quota^[6] by 25%.

In 2024, the U.S. military met^[7] its recruitment target, which supports the argument that the bump is not due to Trump^[8], as recruitment levels began to rise again before his reelection. But in some cases, the U.S. military has met its recruitment goals by lowering target numbers^[9].

And as a scholar of terrorism^[10] and targeted violence, I believe a close reading of available data on military recruitment suggests U.S. gun violence may be largely to blame for the lack of interest in joining the military.

Gun violence data

Regardless of one’s personal politics, the data on U.S. gun violence makes for painful reading.

Almost 47,000 Americans died from gun-related injuries^[11] in 2023. In 2022, there were 51 school shootings^[12] in which students were injured or killed by guns. And gun injuries are the leading cause of death for Americans^[13] between ages 1 and 19.

Data about the perceptions of gun violence is equally staggering, especially among American youth between ages 14 and 30.

Four out of five American youth believe^[14] gun violence to be a problem, and 25% have endured real active-shooter lockdowns, according to data compiled by Everytown for Gun Safety^[15], where I serve as a survivor fellow, the Southern Poverty Law Center^[16] and American University’s Polarization and Extremism Research and Innovation Lab^[17].

Moreover, these perceptions have considerable impacts on youth mental health and their sense of safety. Studies have linked concern over school shootings among adolescents^[18] with higher rates of anxiety and trauma-related disorders.

As Arne Duncan^[19], who served as President Barack Obama’s secretary of education during the Sandy Hook tragedy, said in 2023: “Unfortunately, what’s now binding young people across the country together is not joy of music, or sports, or whatever, it’s really the shared pain of gun violence – and it cuts through race and class and geography and economics.”

National security threat

In the past couple of years, polls^[20] taken^[21] of Generation Z youth^[22], born between 1997 and 2012, suggest mental health and mass shootings are among the most important political issues motivating this band of voters.

Gun violence, in other words, is a national security emergency^[23], undermining the U.S. government’s ability to protect its citizens in their schools, places of worship and communities.

As former Marine Gen. John Allen wrote in 2019^[24]: “Americans today are more likely to experience gun violence at home than they might in many of the places to which I deployed in the name of defending our nation.”